Ch. 11
1 of 1 ·Think in Possibilities
Chapter 11 · Decisions Under Uncertainty
Lesson 1 · Decisions Under Uncertainty
Think in Possibilities
Replace one confident forecast with a useful range of futures.
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Concept
Uncertainty needs scenarios, not pretending
Click to zoomIllustration supporting Uncertainty needs scenarios, not pretendingWhen important information is missing, a single prediction hides uncertainty. A scenario set—likely, better and worse—helps us prepare without treating every possibility as equally probable.