Ch. 11
2 of 1 ·Base Rates Before Stories
Chapter 11 · Decisions Under Uncertainty
Lesson 2 · Decisions Under Uncertainty
Base Rates Before Stories
Start with how often something usually happens.
Easy~25 minFree preview
Concept
Vivid stories can overpower ordinary frequencies
A base rate is how common an event is in a relevant group or time period. A striking example matters, but it should update the base rate rather than replace it.
Example
The delayed train video
Click to zoomIllustration supporting The delayed train videoOne viral delay feels persuasive. To judge reliability, check how many trains were late out of all comparable journeys over a useful period.